Every player profile in InTarget shows two sets of AI-powered metrics that tell you how valuable a player is and how close to leaving they are — updated daily, ready to act on.
Use Cases
Catching high-value players before they go quiet A Whale with rising churn probability across all three horizons is your top priority. You know they're valuable (segment) and you know they're slipping (churn). Intervene now, not after they're gone.
Skipping players who don't need attention An Active player with low churn probability across all horizons doesn't need a retention offer. Save your budget for players where the signal actually says something.
Building precise segments Filter your CRM by segment + state to build lists like "High + At Risk" or "Mid + Cooling" — combinations that are far more actionable than deposit amount alone.
Explaining a player's silence A player hasn't deposited in two weeks. Is that normal for them? Their state tells you: if they're Cooling, it might be. If they're Dead, they've been gone far longer than their usual rhythm.
How It Works
Two independent systems run every day per player.
Churn Prediction uses a machine learning model trained on behavioral patterns across projects. It analyzes more than 20 input features — deposit frequency, gaps, gameplay activity, login trends, withdrawal recency — and outputs a probability that the player will make zero deposits in the next 7, 14, or 30 days. Only players who deposited at least once in the last 60 days are scored.
FM Scoring & Segmentation ranks each player within their project based on two lifetime metrics: how many distinct days they've deposited (frequency) and how much they've deposited in total (monetary). These are converted to percentile ranks and combined into a single FM score — monetary weighted at 80%, frequency at 20%. Segment labels are thresholds on that score. State is determined separately, based on how long ago the player last deposited relative to their own personal deposit rhythm.
Metrics on the Player Profile
Churn Probability
Field | What it shows |
Churn prob (7 days) | Probability the player makes no deposit in the next 7 days |
Churn prob (14 days) | Same for the next 14 days |
Churn prob (30 days) | Same for the next 30 days |
Prediction Updated At | Date the scores were last calculated |
Probabilities are displayed as a percentage (0–100). The underlying risk categories map as follows:
Probability | Risk level | What to do |
0–30% | Low | No action needed |
30–50% | Medium | Consider a soft touchpoint |
50–70% | High | Prioritize for retention campaign |
70–100% | Critical | Urgent — high-value players may warrant personal outreach |
A player can be at high risk for 7 days but low risk for 30 days — meaning they may skip the week but are likely to return within the month. Read all three horizons together.
Player Segment
Segment reflects a player's relative value within your project — how their lifetime deposit frequency and monetary volume compare to everyone else.
Segment | FM Score | Share of player base |
Whale | ≥ 0.97 | Top ~3% |
High | ≥ 0.90 | Top ~3–10% |
Mid | ≥ 0.65 | Top ~10–35% |
Low | ≥ 0.30 | Top ~35–70% |
Micro | < 0.30 | Bottom ~30% |
Segment is based on historical behavior, not current activity. A Whale who stopped depositing six months ago is still a Whale — their segment reflects how much they've contributed over their lifetime, not what they're doing right now.
Player State
State reflects current deposit recency relative to that player's personal rhythm.
State | Meaning |
Active | Within their normal deposit window |
Cooling | Slightly overdue (~50% beyond their expected gap) |
At Risk | Significantly overdue (up to 2.5× their expected gap) |
Dormant | Very overdue — possible return, but unlikely without intervention |
Dead | Far beyond any reasonable expectation of return |
For players with only one lifetime deposit, state is based on fixed day thresholds (Active ≤ 7 days, Dead ≥ 60 days). For everyone else, the system calculates their expected deposit gap from their last six deposit dates, with more recent gaps weighted more heavily.
Monetary & Frequency Score
The numeric score that determines a player's segment. It's a weighted percentile rank combining deposit frequency and total monetary volume — this is the exact number the segment thresholds are applied to. Useful for seeing how close a player is to the next segment boundary.
Metrics Updated At — the date the FM score, segment, and state were last recalculated.
Things to Know
Segment and state serve different purposes. Use segment to measure who a player is; use state to measure where they are right now. A Whale + Dormant player needs a win-back. A Micro + Active player is engaged but low value — treat them differently.
Churn probability is deposit-focused only. It predicts whether a player will stop depositing. It says nothing about withdrawals, gameplay, or fraud.
Players with no deposit in the last 60 days don't get churn scores. They're already inactive by the model's definition — you'd target them through state (Dormant or Dead) instead.
Scores are relative, not absolute. A player's segment rank can shift as your player base grows or contracts, even if their own behavior hasn't changed.